Well-Marked Low Over the Bay May Turn Into a Cyclone Within Three Days, Rain Likely on Tuesday

A well-marked low is positioned over the Bay of Bengal. The weather forecast says it may concentrate further and could turn into a cyclone within the next three days.

Alongside the forecast of the low concentrating over the sea, rain has also been predicted for Tuesday. How far the rain and squally winds spread will depend on the path the low takes and how much strength it ultimately gathers.

A ‘well-marked low’ means a low-pressure system over the sea that has become organised and is slowly gaining strength. If such a system concentrates further, it can first become a deep depression and, in favourable conditions, later turn into a cyclone — the forecast this time points to exactly those stages.

It should be remembered, however, that this is still a forecast of possibility. ‘May turn into a cyclone within three days’ does not mean a cyclone is certain. Depending on sea surface temperature, wind speed and direction and other factors, a low can also weaken.

October is in any case a sensitive time for coastal areas. In this post-monsoon phase, conditions over the Bay of Bengal become favourable for depressions and cyclones, so news of a well-marked low over the sea naturally raises extra caution among coastal residents.

The forecast mentions the possibility of rain on Tuesday. If the low gains strength or moves towards land, both the amount and the coverage of rain could change; if it weakens over the sea, the rain could also remain limited.

At this stage, the most important thing is to watch the coming forecasts. Updated bulletins from the weather office on the low’s position, path and strength will make clear which way the situation is heading.

For residents of coastal areas and for fishing boats and trawlers at sea, following the weather bulletins regularly over the next few days has become essential. If the low advances towards becoming a cyclone, the sea may also turn rough.

All in all, this low is the main weather story for the next three days. Whether it turns into a cyclone, and how widespread Tuesday’s rain becomes — the answers to both questions will come from the meteorological department’s next updated forecasts.