Bay of Bengal Low May Become a Cyclone Within 48 Hours, Rain Expected Across Bangladesh from 27 October
The well-marked low over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal may turn into a cyclone within the next 48 hours. The Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT) said on Saturday, 24 October, that it is likely to strengthen further over the coming days.
According to the organisation's step-by-step forecast, the low may become a depression within the next 6 to 12 hours and a deep depression within the following 24 to 36 hours. After that, there is a strong possibility of it turning into a full cyclone within 48 hours.
BWOT also said it may keep gaining strength continuously over the next three to four days. In other words, the longer it stays over the sea, the more organised and powerful it risks becoming.
According to BWOT, the average maximum wind speed within a 100-kilometre radius of the low's centre is currently 35 kilometres per hour. During gusts, that speed is reaching up to 45 kilometres per hour.
Under its influence, the sea in the central Bay of Bengal and nearby areas is gradually becoming rough. This growing roughness of the sea has become the main reason for caution for fishers and vessel movements.
No formal warning signal has yet been issued by the Meteorological Department for Bangladesh's maritime ports. However, BWOT said a cautionary signal may be issued soon.
In this situation, fishing boats and trawlers have been advised not to go into the deep sea more than 150 kilometres from the coast. Until further notice, fishers have been asked to stay close to the coast and move with caution.
According to the forecast, the low may move generally south and southeast over the next 24 to 36 hours. After that, having gathered strength, it is likely to turn westward.
On reaching the west-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal, it may attain its maximum strength. Although there are signs it could become a strong cyclone, the organisation said how powerful it will ultimately be is not yet certain.
BWOT said that so far there appears to be no risk of the cyclone directly hitting the Bangladesh coast or causing large-scale devastation — for coastal residents, that is the most reassuring information for now.
After turning into a cyclone, it is expected to cross India's northern Andhra Pradesh or adjoining southern Odisha coast on 28 October. Heavy to very heavy rainfall may occur there as it crosses the coast in India.
Its distant effects will also reach Bangladesh. The organisation's forecast said that under the cyclone's indirect influence, a widespread rain belt may become active in Bangladesh from 27 or 28 October, and this rain may continue until 1 November. Significant rainfall is likely in most parts of the country during that time.
Among the divisions, Barishal, Khulna, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Mymensingh and Dhaka may receive comparatively more rain. On the other hand, rainfall in the districts of Chattogram and Sylhet divisions may be comparatively lower, BWOT said.
All in all, this Bay of Bengal system will remain at the centre of the coming days' weather. Everyone — especially coastal residents and those whose livelihoods depend on the sea — will need to watch for formal warning signals, updates to its track and any changes in the rainfall forecast.
