More Than 18 Million Americans Vote Early Two Weeks Before Midterms, With Democrats Showing Higher Enthusiasm

With less than two weeks until the 2026 midterm elections, more than 18 million Americans had voted early by mail or in person as of Thursday morning.

The figure comes from the Election Lab at the University of Florida, and the early votes cast so far serve as one more piece of evidence that Democratic enthusiasm is high in some key states, according to ABC News analysis.

In ABC News' own analysis run on Tuesday using voter file data from L2, registered Democrats and voters modelled as likely to support Democrats cast a higher share of early votes in all states except Alaska and Michigan, where the share is similar to 2024.

Democrats have cast a higher share of early and absentee ballots relative to 2024 in Georgia and Iowa, where the total early vote is about 18 points more Democratic this year.

Modelled partisans are voters in states without party registration, where available information such as primary turnout is used to predict likely support. Neither registration nor modelling guarantees how a voter will actually vote.

For ballots cast so far, Democrats comprise a much larger share, and this possible advantage is consistent with higher Democratic turnout in this year's primaries, suggesting Democratic enthusiasm is higher.

Recent polling points in the same direction. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found 72 percent of Democratic voters said they were certain to vote, compared with 65 percent of Republicans. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 36 percent of Democrats very enthusiastic about voting in the 2026 midterms, compared with 29 percent of Republicans.

The early vote numbers are only one piece of the story, however, and say nothing about whether low-propensity voters will vote later in the early period or on Election Day. In previous elections, Republicans have been much more likely to vote on Election Day and have won votes cast that day.

In the past two elections, total votes were split relatively evenly across early in-person, mail and Election Day voting. A Pew Research Center survey matching respondents with their 2024 vote record estimated Democrats led by 24 points on mail ballots, while Republicans won early in-person voting by 14 points and Election Day by 16 points.

Likely voters who plan to vote early, or already have, supported Democrats over Republicans in congressional choice by 26 points in the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. Those voting early at a polling place favoured Democrats by 14 points, those dropping off a ballot early by 50 points, while those planning to vote in person on Election Day supported Republicans by 11 points.

In Michigan, about 670,000 voters had cast ballots as of October 19, 90 percent of whom had voted in at least three of the four most recent general elections. In Georgia, nearly 850,000 votes had been cast, with the highest-propensity voters making up 71 percent, up from 63 percent in 2024.

The big question in Georgia and across the country will be whether lower-propensity Republicans turn out. Getting party faithful to vote early is valuable for a campaign, but it is difficult to draw firm conclusions about Election Day turnout from this data alone.