Many AIPAC-backed candidates won in the midterms, but most of its money went to losers

Pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC and political spending groups linked to it poured tens of millions of dollars into US midterm election races. Although many candidates the group backed won, nearly two-thirds of the total money it spent went to candidates who ended up losing.

Nearly a year before he won a seat in the United States Senate from Texas, James Talarico drew attention for his vehement rejection of campaign funding from AIPAC. In a clip for a podcast he said, “I’ve never taken money from AIPAC, and I’m not taking money from AIPAC in this campaign.” He said seeing what was happening in Gaza made him sick to his stomach.

On November 3, Talarico won by more than 12 percentage points. Pro-Israel groups allied with AIPAC gave modest support — about $6,000 — to his opponent, Ken Paxton.

In races across the country, AIPAC and groups linked to it poured tens of millions of dollars into backing one candidate or another. While the group did back many winning candidates, nearly two-thirds of the total money it spent this election cycle went to those who ended up losing.

According to a tally by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, AIPAC, the United Democracy Project (UDP) and linked groups spent $84m in the election cycle. Around $55m of that went to candidates who did not win.

But in terms of the number of winning candidates, the group still has a strong record. On November 4, the day after the election, AIPAC said it had already counted some 234 candidates it backed as having won their contests.

According to Track AIPAC, an organisation that records the group’s funding of US politicians, nearly 50 PACs are tied to the pro-Israel lobbying group. Pro-Israel groups backed candidates in at least 32 of 35 Senate races. In 26 of those races, the groups spent more than $100,000 on a candidate, and 21 of those candidates won on November 3.

Rina Shah, a geopolitical adviser and strategist and a former senior GOP congressional aide, said that a few years ago taking AIPAC support was a no-brainer for most GOP candidates. Now, she said, a younger, more America First wing is asking hard questions about foreign entanglements, and Gaza is weighing on voters across the spectrum.

How AIPAC spends money has become more opaque. In October, the group said it would stop endorsing candidates and making direct contributions to them after this election cycle. Much of its spending already runs through affiliated political action committees, such as its super PAC, the United Democracy Project, making donations harder to track.

The most notable race in which an AIPAC-backed candidate lost was for a Senate seat in Michigan, where the group and affiliated PACs spent some $30m on Representative Haley Stevens. AIPAC then poured an additional $9m into backing Republican Mike Rogers, who lost on November 3 to Abdul El-Sayed, an outspoken critic of Israel who has called for the US to stop giving financial support to the country.

In his victory speech on election night, El-Sayed addressed the pro-Israel lobbying group and said, “Thank you for giving me the opportunity to beat you twice.”

In Maine, AIPAC-linked groups gave more than $4.8m in support of Senator Susan Collins’s re-election campaign. Collins lost to Democrat Troy Jackson.

In California, Melissa Hernandez received more than $6m in backing from UDP and other pro-Israel groups this year, as she sought to defeat Aisha Wahab, a left-leaning Afghan American who has frequently been critical of Israel, in a contest for a seat in the House. Wahab won that race.

But in other races, the pro-Israel groups successfully backed candidates, especially in primary races. In Missouri, AIPAC-related groups provided about $3m in funding to support Representative Wesley Bell. Bell won a seat in the House on November 3 with more than 81 percent of the vote. Most of that money was spent in primaries, where Bell defeated former Representative Cori Bush, who was one of the first lawmakers in Congress to call Israel’s war on Gaza a genocide. Previously, AIPAC-related groups funnelled $8m into beating Bush in 2024.

In New York, George Latimer was re-elected to the House. AIPAC spent some $14m defeating his opponent in 2024, when he ousted left-wing Israel critic Jamaal Bowman. UDP also spent more than $4m in 2024 on another primary, helping Democrat Sarah Elfreth win her party’s nomination. Elfreth again won on November 3.

AIPAC is no longer the only lobbying group on Israel. J Street, a Jewish American group that describes itself as pro-Israel and pro-peace, said on November 4 that it had backed more than 200 candidates with more than $13m in funding. A poll commissioned by J Street found that 72 percent of American Jewish voters still backed the Democratic Party in the midterm elections.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, said, “We have entered a new era.” In his words, it is not just that AIPAC is spending millions of dollars and losing; candidates now find AIPAC’s donations toxic and are rejecting them.