Yamal leads data prediction on eve of Ballon d'Or ceremony in London, Kane the bookmakers' favourite

The winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or will be crowned at Monday's gala ceremony in London, the first time the award has been held in Britain, at the London Palladium.

A three-way contest between Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane leads the debate for football's most prestigious individual honour. Spain's 19-year-old Yamal and France's 2018 World Cup winner Mbappe have both publicly endorsed themselves, while England's Kane has been relatively quiet in campaigning for himself.

According to data released by Avisia, a French data analysis and artificial intelligence firm, Yamal is the favourite with a 23 percent probability of lifting the trophy for the 2025-26 season. The firm placed Kane a close second at 21 percent, with Mbappe third at 19 percent, tied with Rodri, the 2024 winner.

Avisia's top five is rounded out by Lionel Messi, given an 18 percent chance to win for a record-extending ninth time. The firm claims it correctly identified the top five for the 2025 Ballon d'Or, won by Ousmane Dembele.

Bookmakers see it differently, however: Kane is their outright favourite, at about 70 percent probability. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone thinks his compatriot Messi, who recently retired from international duty, deserves the golden ball. After the World Cup, Simeone said, Messi played at his age in a way that leaves no doubt.

Former Italy international Marco Materazzi echoed that view, saying that with all due respect to Yamal, Messi showed at 38 years old that he is in a different league. Jude Bellingham, also shortlisted, backed England captain Kane, his attacking partner at the 2026 World Cup. Bellingham said Kane works so hard for it, is a very honest and hard-working person, and that a win for him is definitely possible.

Fellow England international Anthony Gordon sided with his Barcelona teammate Yamal, saying what Lamine has achieved at such a young age, and the kind of player he is, is ridiculous and on a whole other level. Mbappe has the backing of Real Madrid teammate Aurelien Tchouameni, who said the Frenchman had an incredible season.

On individual statistics, Mbappe leads the race as La Liga's top scorer with 25 goals and the Champions League's leading marksman with 15. He also won the World Cup's Golden Boot and set the record for most World Cup goals with 12. Kane, meanwhile, scored an incredible 73 goals last season—the most by any player since Messi netted 82 in 2011-12.

But Mbappe failed to win a trophy with either club or country, while Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern but guided England only to a third-place finish—the lack of major titles weakens their cases. Yamal won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, even though injury marred his campaign and his personal statistics were not the greatest.

Recent history suggests winning a title in a major tournament has become almost a prerequisite: only four of the previous 19 Ballon d'Or winners failed to lift any of the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in the year they were honoured. A win for Yamal would make him the youngest winner, surpassing Brazil's Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.