Final Count Gives Lula 51.75 Percent: Turnout Surge and the Northeast Firewall Sealed Brazil's Comeback

The picture from Brazil's presidential runoff is now nearly complete. According to the country's electoral commission, with 99 percent of ballots counted, incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won 51.75 percent of the vote, while his rival, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, took 48.25 percent. Sunday's result confirms Lula's unprecedented fourth term in office.

The most striking feature of the victory is the arithmetic of the comeback. Lula lost the first round on October 4 by 2.2 million votes; three weeks later, he won the second round by 4.3 million votes. In the first round, Bolsonaro had taken 47 percent to Lula's 45 percent, with neither candidate reaching the 50 percent needed to win outright.

In the analysis of Lula's allies, much of the gap was closed by getting his voters to the polls. Abstention in the first round hit a record 21.08 percent, which disproportionately hurt Lula's supporters because many of them live farther from polling stations. In the second round, that rate fell to 19.21 percent.

The geography of the win is equally clear. In the populous Northeast, the Workers Party's long-standing dominance — known as Lula's 'firewall' — again delivered him large margins. Across the North and Northeast, he won by wide margins.

Bolsonaro, meanwhile, carried his southern strongholds — Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul — but by smaller margins than in the first round. His southern wins were not enough to offset the deficit in the Northeast.

The most dramatic picture came from Minas Gerais, the state regarded as the nation's bellwether. Bolsonaro won it by 5 percent in the first round; in the second round, the two candidates finished essentially tied there. As the saying goes, as Minas Gerais goes, so goes the nation — and this time proved no exception.

Votes from Brazilians living abroad also reflected the divide. The first tallies came in from overseas voters: Lula won a decisive victory in Germany, while Bolsonaro won an overwhelming victory in Japan.

Election day itself was not free of controversy. Around midday, Lula's campaign requested an extension of voting hours, arguing that some local governments had reduced bus service, making it harder for voters to reach polling stations. Bolsonaro also sought an extension, citing heavy rain in some states. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin eventually ordered voting extended by two hours beyond its normal 5 p.m. closing time.

But the order reached some polling stations after officials had already deactivated their electronic voting machines, so voting could not resume there. At one station in Rio de Janeiro, 36-year-old accountant Manuela Tunas arrived shortly after 6 p.m., her flight into the city having been delayed, and was unable to cast a ballot. 'This is absurd,' she said. 'If some people can vote, and others can't, it's unfair.'

As the result was confirmed, hundreds of Lula supporters gathered on São Paulo's Paulista Avenue, waving red flags to watch the count. Camilo Buarque, 35, said: 'I feel so very happy being here, and being here fighting for Lula. My confidence comes from the energy and the happiness and the love of these people. This is democracy.' Ester Almeida, 28, another supporter at the rally, said her heart was beating a thousand times a second but she was confident.

In Rio's Rocinha favela, Alessandra Miguel, a 35-year-old spa worker who voted for Lula, said: 'I think people woke up about the risk of a Bolsonaro government after the first round, and the mobilization made a difference.'

Reginaldo Lopes, a key Lula ally, reacted to the confirmed result by saying he felt incredible, adding that through this result Brazil was sending a message to the world, and that the country's democratic forces would now be reorganized.

For analysts, the most striking feature of this election was the rigidity of voters' allegiances. Brazilian political scientist Jairo Nicolau, who studies presidential elections, said that unlike in past years, people's identity of belonging to a tribe became more important than how they view different policy options.

Alongside the presidential contest, voters in five states and the federal district of Brasília also chose governors in runoff elections on Sunday. Early indications suggest Bolsonaro-aligned candidates were poised to win most of those races.

In his fourth term, Lula will face a Congress with a center-right and right-wing majority, described as one of the most conservative in recent history. And although Flávio Bolsonaro lost by a narrow margin, observers say the Bolsonaro movement remains an influential force in Brazilian politics.