Bulgaria Votes for President in the Shadow of Russia's War, With Iotova Ahead

Bulgarians are voting in a presidential election as Russia's war on Ukraine spreads to the waters off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast. A series of drone attacks on merchant ships near the country's coast has heightened anxiety around this election.

Ahead of Sunday's vote, President Iliana Iotova, 61, and former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov, 50, were leading a field of 27 candidates in the polls. The main contest, however, is expected to be between these two.

The presidency is a largely ceremonial post in Bulgaria, and major policies must be approved by Parliament. But direct election gives the president greater political authority: the president leads the armed forces and can veto legislation, sign international treaties and appoint ambassadors.

The election has gained extra attention after a series of drone attacks on merchant ships off Bulgaria's coast that likely killed some two dozen international seafarers. The strikes sparked international condemnation and concern about the growing reach of the war in Ukraine, prompting Bulgaria to seek allied assistance to bolster its maritime security.

The Bulgarian government has stopped short of explicitly blaming Russia for the attacks. Prime Minister Rumen Radev, however, said the outcome of the strikes benefits the Russian Federation.

Both leading candidates have condemned the strikes, but they differ on the broader war in Ukraine. Gyurov, who served as caretaker prime minister this year, is backed by pro-Western, reformist parties and has long expressed support for Ukraine. During his time as premier he signed a security cooperation agreement with Kyiv.

At a rally on Thursday, Gyurov said he wants Bulgaria to have a voice of its own in Europe — a reliable NATO ally that defends its interests through preparedness, strong diplomacy and a clear position.

Iotova, a former vice president, became acting president in January after Radev resigned to enter the parliamentary race, which he won on what many political analysts considered a Kremlin-friendly ticket. Radev supports Iotova, and they both call for a diplomatic end to the war.

At a rally on Thursday, Iotova said her opponents argue that there must be a war of attrition. The truth is, she said, we are all the ones who are most exhausted — a remark that made her position against a prolonged war clear.

Dobromir Zhivkov, managing director of the Market Links polling agency, said Iotova is among those who advocate that Bulgaria take a more neutral position. They call for an end to aid for Ukraine and a halt to arms deliveries, and often use Kremlin rhetoric and terminology borrowed directly from Kremlin propaganda, he told a news agency earlier this week.

While there is broad consensus among the parties in Parliament on the country's pro-Western path, widespread pro-Russian sentiments based on traditional historical and cultural ties with Russia have divided society, particularly since Moscow's full-scale invasion began. Candidates are also addressing public fears about the steep rise in energy prices and surging inflation, with many Bulgarians in rural areas struggling to make ends meet.

Polls by Alpha Research give Iotova 41 percent of the vote and Gyurov 28 percent. Voting started at 7am and polls close at 8pm. Analysts expect none of the 27 candidates to secure the outright majority needed to win in the first round.

Turnout must also be above 50 percent of the 6.6 million registered voters, and Sunday's turnout is expected to be less than 40 percent. That makes a run-off on November 1 the most likely outcome.