Oil climbs for a third straight week on Middle East tensions: Brent at $113.70, warning of a 20% jump in European airfares
Crude oil prices rose further in world markets on growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, attacks on key energy infrastructure and fears of supply disruption. Reports of recent attacks in Saudi Arabia and of a possible new US-Israeli military operation against Iran have kept fuel prices on an upward trend for a third consecutive week, renewing concerns over global energy supply and price stability.
On Friday, Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 0.36 percent to $113.70 a barrel in international markets. At the same time, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.33 percent to $99.80 a barrel. Brent is up roughly 3 percent this week alone.
For market analysts, the Middle East security situation is now one of the most important drivers of oil prices. If the conflict spreads further, production, transport and export operations could all be disrupted. In particular, a heightened risk of attacks on major ports, oilfields and sea routes raises fears of reduced supply in international markets — and those fears are being priced in.
Fresh anxiety has come from attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels. According to published reports, the group struck Saudi Arabia's important Red Sea port of Yanbu as well as an oilfield and an airport in the country.
The port of Yanbu is critical infrastructure for Saudi energy exports. When security risks rise in the Persian Gulf region, Red Sea infrastructure grows in importance as an alternative transport route. News of attacks on such facilities therefore causes particular concern in international energy markets; if supply systems were disrupted for a long period, prices would face even more upward pressure.
Analysts note, however, that alongside the attack reports, what matters for the market is how much actual production and exports have been affected. Even without a major supply interruption, traders may take cautious positions on future supply purely from fear that the conflict could spread — and such uncertainty increases price volatility in oil markets.
Another major driver is the military tension surrounding Iran. A New York Times report this week said Washington and Tel Aviv are planning a renewed, large-scale coordinated military operation against Iran immediately after the US midterm elections early next month. After that news spread, the upward trend in oil prices strengthened further. Yet a reported plan and an actual operation are not the same thing; the next developments will play an important role in determining the market's direction.
If conflict around Iran escalates, not only the country's own oil production and exports but the entire Middle East energy supply system could be at risk. In particular, any threat to shipping through a vital waterway such as the Strait of Hormuz could create major uncertainty over world supply. A significant share of the world's seaborne energy depends on this region, so instability there draws a rapid reaction from international markets.
The year's picture is even bigger: according to the figures given, Brent crude has risen by more than 85 percent since the start of the year. Prolonged conflict, fears of disruption to production and transport, and uncertainty over future supply are all behind the increase.
If oil prices stay high for a long time, the impact will not remain confined to the energy sector. Higher transport costs, rising production costs in factories and extra spending on goods transport can all feed broader inflationary pressure. Import-dependent countries in particular face pressure on their foreign currency reserves when they must buy fuel at higher prices, and may need to adjust domestic fuel prices.
A direct example is visible in aviation. Michael O'Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, Europe's largest airline, has warned that abnormal fuel price rises caused by the Middle East crisis could push European airfares up by a record amount next year. At a press conference in Brussels he said: 'You will see airfares in Europe rising next year — my guess is 10, 15, possibly 20 percent. I would say that in the next 12 months you are going to see the biggest jump in airfares in European history.'
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) had forecast that jet fuel prices could rise by around 70 percent from last year's $90 a barrel to an annual average of $152, dealing a heavy blow to airline profits. O'Leary said that before the war situation, Ryanair had been able to hedge 80 percent of its 2026 fuel needs at $67 a barrel. But for 2027 the airline has no hedging on 85 percent of its fuel — only 15 percent has been fixed at $85 a barrel, while spot oil prices have reached nearly double that. Most European airlines, he said, are in the same position, and without adequate protection many could face bankruptcy or takeover.
Altogether, where world oil prices go in the coming days will depend mainly on the Middle East military situation, the security of energy infrastructure and how functional the international supply system remains. If the conflict spreads further or key export routes are blocked, the upward trend may continue; conversely, if tensions ease and supply is assured, price pressure may soften somewhat. For fuel-importing countries this volatility is creating a new economic challenge — import bills, transport costs and inflation may become harder to control, making it essential to watch the situation closely, secure supply continuity and prepare for the possible pressure.
