Maine Senate Race a Dead Heat: Collins and Jackson Tied at 49% in Fox News Poll

Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are locked in a dead heat in Maine's Senate race. A Fox News survey finds the two candidates tied at 49% apiece among likely voters.

The poll says Maine voters are in a negative mood this election season. Only 12% say their family is better off financially compared to two years ago, and more than 6 in 10 disapprove of President Donald Trump's job performance, including 2 in 10 Republicans.

That mood weighs on Collins. Some 53% of voters are concerned that she votes with Trump too much. By contrast, 46% are concerned that Democratic challenger Jackson is too liberal.

Despite those views, the horse race shows the candidates tied. All survey interviews were completed after the candidates' October 15 debate.

Collins, who first won her seat about three decades ago, is seeking a sixth term. She is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024, by 7 points. In 2020, Collins won by nearly 9 points.

Democrats view Maine as a must-win seat in their effort to take control of the Senate. Asked about control of the US Senate, 53% of voters prefer a Democratic-led Senate against 45% who want Republicans to remain in charge. While almost all Jackson supporters want Democratic control (96%), Collins supporters are more divided: 89% want a GOP-led chamber, but 9% prefer Democratic leadership.

Collins will need to overcome the energy on the left, as far more Democrats (79%) than Republicans (61%) say they are extremely interested in the election, which explains why Jackson is ahead by 16 points among that group. He is up by 4 points among those who say they are certain to vote, and he also carries the one in five Mainers who have already cast a ballot by a decisive 40 points. On the other hand, a slim majority plans to vote on Election Day, and they favor Collins by 12 points.

'Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage,' said Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, the Democratic polling firm that conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. 'Trump's job rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapproves of him. Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line.'

Views of the president's performance are a problem for GOP candidates in Maine. Currently, 37% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing, while 62% disapprove, including 54% who strongly disapprove.

The candidates' personal favorability ratings are both underwater. Views of Jackson are negative by 2 points (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable), and by 4 points for Collins (47%-51%).

Partisan vote choice varies distinctly across key groups. Voters under 45 favor Collins by 6 points, while those aged 45 and older prefer Jackson by 3. Women support Jackson by 5 points, while men back Collins by 4. The sharpest divide is education: Mainers with a college degree pick Jackson by 23 points, while Collins leads among those without a degree by 16. Collins is ahead among rural voters by 7 points, while Jackson is the pick of the smaller number of suburban voters by 18 points. For comparison, in 2020 Collins won both rural voters and those without a college degree by 18 points each.

'Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception,' Shaw said. 'GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas.'

In Maine's gubernatorial race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 10 points, 49% to 39%, while independent candidate Rick Bennett takes 9%. Unlike Jackson, whose coalition backs Pingree almost unanimously (only 8% defect), nearly one in five Collins supporters (19%) peel off to either Bennett (11%) or Pingree (8%).

The Fox News Poll was conducted October 16-20, 2026, and includes interviews with 1,689 Maine registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file; for the subsample of 1,514 likely voters the margin of sampling error is ±2.5 percentage points. As election day approaches, the poll suggests enthusiasm and turnout will decide this tied contest.