Israel Votes on 27 October: Netanyahu in a Tight Race Against Former Army Chief Eisenkot

Israel's general election takes place next Tuesday, 27 October. It is the first election since the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on Israel and its subsequent conflicts in Gaza and with Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Many view it as one of the most pivotal elections in Israel's history, with global implications.

Current polling puts incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a tight race with Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Eisenkot's popularity stems partly from his military credentials and his relative newness in politics — he formed his Yashar Party only last year.

Eisenkot lost his son, a soldier, in the first months of the Gaza war. He served in Israel's war cabinet under Netanyahu until resigning in 2024 over disagreements about the conflict. He has built his campaign on calls for accountability over the security failures that led to 7 October.

Other opposition leaders include former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman — both right-wingers who take hardline positions on security and advocate permanent Israeli control over much of the occupied West Bank — and Yair Golan, a left-winger who supports Israel's withdrawal from large parts of the territory. Despite their differences, they could work with Eisenkot to form a government.

Netanyahu's current government is the most right-wing in Israel's history. To remain in power, he will likely have to rely on the support of some of his existing far-right coalition partners. Some hold ultra-nationalist positions, such as calling for Israel to annex the West Bank and for the 'migration' of Palestinians from Gaza — which could amount to the forced displacement of civilians. Some members of Netanyahu's own Likud party have also called for Palestinian 'migration' from the territory.

Two Arab party blocs are also in the running. About one-fifth of Israel's population is Arab, many of whom describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. In theory, they could prove kingmakers. But all but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out working with them.

Israel's parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, meaning a government must hold 61 seats to command a majority. Israel uses a proportional representation voting system, meaning governments have always been coalitions of multiple parties. After election day, it may take weeks or even months before the next government is formed, with parties wrangling for concessions and deals being struck. If no bloc can form a majority, a minority government could take power.

The dominating topic has been security, with all of Netanyahu's challengers heavily criticising the security failures that led to the 7 October attacks, in which nearly 1,200 people were killed and 251 others taken back to Gaza as hostages. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has once again framed himself as 'Mr Security', pointing to strategic victories in Israel's wars since 2023.

Conscription is also a major topic. Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men in full-time religious study have historically been exempt from military service, but since war broke out this has become an increasingly divisive policy. Judicial reform has also featured heavily: Netanyahu's government is still pursuing contentious reform plans that led to mass protests before 7 October, and critics say they would compromise the judiciary's independence and threaten democracy. Cost of living is another key issue, as food and housing costs have grown steadily in recent years.

A year on from the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel continues to carry out near-daily strikes on the territory — saying it is targeting Hamas operatives — and maintains control of more than half of it. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, whose figures the UN considers reliable, more than 74,000 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza since 7 October 2023. In the West Bank, attacks by Jewish settlers are at an all-time high according to UN records, while Israeli settlements, illegal under international law, are rapidly expanding. For Palestinians, then, the shape of Israel's government is a major factor in their lives.

On Gaza, the two leading camps — headed by Netanyahu and Eisenkot — hold similar positions, with both supporting Donald Trump's peace plan, under which Hamas would give up its weapons in exchange for a phased Israeli troop withdrawal. Eisenkot recently pledged to end Hamas rule in the territory within 18 months, through military means if necessary. In the West Bank, Netanyahu's camp largely wants to continue settlement expansion. Eisenkot supports Israeli settlements in general, but opposes the controversial E1 settlement project, which would in effect split the West Bank in two; he also wants to close some unauthorised settler outposts built on Palestinian land, create conditions for a final peace settlement with the Palestinians, and crack down on extremist Jewish settlers.

For decades, many mainstream Israeli politicians advocated a two-state solution — an independent Palestinian state in peaceful coexistence alongside Israel — although Netanyahu has long opposed it. But support for the idea has been declining for years. In this election, none of the leading Jewish parties are campaigning on it, and many have outright rejected it.

At 22:00 local time (20:00 GMT) on election day, Israeli broadcasters will publish exit polls. These will give some indication of the direction of voting, but they can vary significantly, and current polling suggests a clear projected winner is unlikely. Preliminary results are expected the next day, with official results scheduled for 4 November. After consulting party leaders, President Isaac Herzog will then invite whichever leader he believes has the best chance of forming a government to do so. The process can take more than a month, and if it fails the president may ask another leader to try. Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five separate elections as parties struggled time and again to co-operate — and this time, too, coalition arithmetic will decide the fate of the country's next government.